Peter Munro
Naked Politics Blogger
In order to keep in the race, Wisconsin was a must win for both Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders. With both candidates in 2nd place, crucial delegates were picked up within the state, which prevented Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump from widening the gap in the contest for the nominations. On the night, Cruz made it his third consecutive state victory, tallying up a total of 86 valuable delegates since March 22nd, whilst Trump has only picked up 6 during this time. On the Democratic side, Sanders’ momentum has continued, as Wisconsin was his sixth state victory in a row.
So what does this mean for Election 2016?
Well, as I mentioned earlier, the gap between the candidates in each party has slowly been closing over the last 20 days with victories from Cruz and Sanders. Therefore, it makes it more unlikely that Trump and Clinton will reach the magic delegate number required to become the automatic nominees. Consequently, this means that it is more likely that the parties will go to ‘convention’ where, essentially, the candidates will battle it out and persuade high-ranking members of the party to vote for them.
What else?
Ted Cruz was expecting to struggle in April, as many political pundits suggested that Trump would do well in both the Wisconsin primary and then the East coast primaries that follow. Cruz has got off to a great start in April, whilst Trump is in one of the worst periods of his campaign, winning very few delegates. However, with six upcoming East coast primaries, the Texan will have to do something special to defeat Trump in his home region.
So what next?
Both Cruz and Sanders look to keep moving their campaigns forward, especially as New York’s primary is coming up on April 19th, where there are huge delegate numbers on offer. With 95 delegates available for the Republicans and 247 on offer on the Democratic side, every candidate is going to pool their resources into the state, hoping for a big win.
New York is going to be a very interesting primary on both sides.
For Ted Cruz, it is a major possibility that his comments on New York will come back to bite him. Remember when he slammed Trump’s “New York values”? I’m certain that those comments will not be forgotten easily and I’m also certain that Trump is smart enough to use that to his advantage. Even candidate John Kasich is more popular than Cruz in New York right now. If you don’t know who John Kasich is, then that kind of makes my point.
On the Democratic side of the race, Clinton has an automatic advantage in the Empire State as she previously served as Senator for eight years. However, the excitement of Bernie Sanders and his ability to mobilise young voters will definitely challenge Clinton, as we have observed since the beginning of primary season. I wish I could honestly confirm that one candidate will beat the other on April 19th, but I really cannot give any answers as of now. I would assume, along with many others, that Clinton will be the most successful on the day, but assumptions will get you nowhere in this election. Remember when Sanders had no chance of winning any states? We have never been more wrong.
This primary season has been completely unpredictable, with surprise candidates, surprise victories and plenty of controversy to go around. It’s been nasty and negative, with all candidates playing dirty at some point.
My personal prediction, after analysing the Wisconsin primary, is that Ted Cruz will just about be able to prevent Donald Trump from reaching that magic delegate number, and force him into battle in a Republican convention where he will eventually be able to use the party machine to his benefit and win the nomination. Additionally, although Bernie will put up a strong fight, Clinton has just enough support from the party to win the nomination outright, without having to be taken to a Democratic convention.
But, anything could happen.